# Homyak Weak Regime Review

Generated: 2026-06-11T05:02:00.190452+00:00

## Weak Years

| Year | Baseline pips | Shadow pips | Delta |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 2018 | 260.3 | -16.3 | -276.6 |
| 2023 | -43.0 | 267.1 | 310.1 |
| 2026 | -103.1 | -152.4 | -49.3 |

## Weak Sides

| Year | Side | Trades | Pips | Win rate | Volume | ADX | Spread | EMA sep | Main issue |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| 2018 | BUY | 534 | 20.5 | 0.4625 | 1.638 | 28.68 | 0.87 | -0.97 | weak_pattern_body |
| 2018 | SELL | 525 | 239.8 | 0.4762 | 1.617 | 28.11 | 0.87 | 0.70 | weak_pattern_body |
| 2023 | BUY | 545 | -239.8 | 0.4495 | 1.771 | 27.71 | 1.01 | -0.25 | weak_pattern_body |
| 2023 | SELL | 535 | 196.8 | 0.4654 | 1.848 | 28.68 | 1.03 | 0.43 | weak_pattern_body |
| 2026 | BUY | 229 | -92.6 | 0.4323 | 1.789 | 28.70 | 0.72 | 0.56 | weak_pattern_body |
| 2026 | SELL | 249 | -10.5 | 0.4819 | 2.083 | 29.02 | 0.75 | -0.02 | weak_pattern_body |

## Action Queue

### 2018 BUY
- Raise BUY minimum body-to-range ratio in weak regimes.
- Require cleaner second-candle follow-through before entry on thin-body setups.

### 2018 SELL
- Raise SELL minimum body-to-range ratio in weak regimes.
- Require cleaner second-candle follow-through before entry on thin-body setups.

### 2023 BUY
- Raise BUY minimum body-to-range ratio in weak regimes.
- Require cleaner second-candle follow-through before entry on thin-body setups.

### 2023 SELL
- Raise SELL minimum body-to-range ratio in weak regimes.
- Require cleaner second-candle follow-through before entry on thin-body setups.

### 2026 BUY
- Raise BUY minimum body-to-range ratio in weak regimes.
- Require cleaner second-candle follow-through before entry on thin-body setups.

### 2026 SELL
- Raise SELL minimum body-to-range ratio in weak regimes.
- Require cleaner second-candle follow-through before entry on thin-body setups.

## Next Focus

- Validate 2026 SELL and BUY separately against live-forward logs before touching global thresholds.
- Carry 2018 as a structural edge-case year: use it as a guardrail, not as the main optimization target.
- Prefer side-specific regime filters over universal stop/take-profit edits.